A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
